Israeli Deterrence Theory after October 7, 2023

Abstract

In Israel, many national security experts, statesmen, and officers are engaged in an intense debate about a single issue, one that is deeply connected to the very existence of the state itself. This debate takes the form of a specific question: Does Israel’s deterrence theory need to be reviewed, reformulated, developed, or expanded upon to become more in line with the current situation Israel is experiencing and more in line with the nature of the threats it faces now and in the future?. Especially since this theory was a product of the founding phase in 1948 and was inspired by the works of early pioneers of the Zionist right, such as Ze’ev Vladimir Jabotinsky, the spiritual father of the Zionist right, and the spiritual father of what later became known as the Iron Wall theory, as the first Israeli deterrent strategy. But today’s world has completely changed, the Middle East is changing, Israel’s adversaries are changing in turn, and available capabilities have begun to impose a new pattern of dealing with adversaries according to their new names, roles, and capabilities.
On this basis, this study has addressed in detail the ongoing debate in Israel about its deterrence theory and its strategic options for the future, in two main axes. The first assumed the stability of some elements of the deterrence theory, particularly those related to its founding ideas. The second axis investigated the elements of change within it, which appear to be more closely related to the operational or applied aspect of the theory in the field.